AGP Executive Report

Aviation shock: Air New Zealand posted a $336m pre-tax loss (net loss $242m) as jet fuel costs, engine availability issues and higher aviation systems and maintenance expenses overwhelmed stronger passenger revenue. Media & streaming: TVNZ reported a $16.3m statutory profit and a $2.2m dividend to the Crown, citing digital revenue growth and progress on its Digital+ strategy. Energy build-out: Transpower says FY26 delivered 18 new renewable generation and battery/capacity projects adding 669MW, plus progress on electrification and a $1.1b renewal of the North–South HVDC link. Cybersecurity push: More than 100 firms, including OpenAI and Microsoft, signed an open letter urging urgent, coordinated action against AI-enabled cyber attacks. Trade wins: New Zealand’s UAE free trade deal is already lifting exports, with goods exports up 7% to $1.4b and two-way trade above $1.6b to July 2026. Local property pulse: A property-sector update says residential markets remain active into 2026, with Christchurch and parts of mid-Canterbury showing particular momentum. Māori business snapshot: Stats NZ reports Māori farms averaged 707 hectares in 2025—2.5 times the national farm average—often reflecting collective ownership and larger forestry/bush areas. Transport policy: Waikato Regional Council is consulting on removing peak-time free bus travel for SuperGold card holders, while proposing discounts for younger riders. Business & tech marketing: Kiwi tech marketers are finalists in the NZ Tech Marketing Awards, highlighting how tech firms are turning innovation into commercial growth. Disaster watch: Nepal-China flash floods have killed hundreds and left more than 1,000 missing, including five New Zealanders.

Markets: The NZX 50 slid about 1% as bond yields rose on rate-hike expectations, weighing on dividend-style stocks; Precinct Properties led the fall while Summerset jumped on improving cash flow. Property & jobs: Trade Me/Cotality data points to a cautious market with listings high and prices softening overall, but Christchurch and parts of the South are holding up better; first-home buyers are taking a bigger share of purchases, while unemployment has climbed to a June-quarter 11-year high of 5.6%. Corporate moves: MAS appointed former ASB CFO Jon Raby to its board, and Chubb named Jon Longmore as NZ country president from September 2026. Tech & AI: OpenAI is rolling out ChatGPT ads in India for Free and Go users, while a new study says NZ is getting stronger productivity gains from CX AI than Australia, despite slower rollout. Global shock with NZ links: Nepal–Tibet flash floods and landslides have killed hundreds and left more than 1,300 missing, including five New Zealanders reported missing by MFAT.

Online Safety Bill: New Zealand is moving to restrict social media for under-16s and require platforms to verify users’ ages and assess child-safety risks, with experts warning bans may be “large-scale experiments” and that young people can find workarounds. Cybercrime & Scams: Vertech says AI is making phishing and scams harder to spot as scammers produce polished text, audio, images and video at scale. Fraud Crackdown: Inland Revenue stopped a coordinated tax fraud scheme, halting $4.015m in bogus expense claims and shutting down nearly 3,000 fraudulent amended returns. Energy & Markets: Genesis Energy’s net profit halved to $85m, though underlying earnings rose and it lifted its dividend, while Meridian also signalled below-inflation power price increases. Property & Housing: Mayors including Auckland’s Wayne Brown and others want the Government to pause greenfield fast-tracked housing and remove rural developments from the Fast-Track Approvals Act. Local Economy: Precinct Properties targets 50% office pre-commitment for Auckland Downtown Carpark towers, and Rotorua Airport lodged consent steps for a long-planned business park. Child Poverty: The Child Poverty Action Group launched a manifesto urging parties to act as hardship is rising and the country is off track to meet its child-poverty targets. International: MFAT is aware of a New Zealander’s death in Bangladesh, and New Zealanders are among those reported missing after Nepal-Tibet flash floods.

Markets & NZX: The S&P/NZX 50 closed above 14,000 for the first time, up 0.2% to 14,013.21, helped by Auckland International Airport (+1.1%) and Apple exporter Scales Corp’s record first-half result, while Meridian Energy dragged with a flat-year outlook. Monetary & FX: The kiwi slipped versus the Australian dollar after faster-than-expected Tasman consumer price growth, raising the odds of another Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike. Property & governance: Winton Land shares fell after chair Steven Joyce and director Guy Fergusson quit the board, citing misalignment with majority shareholder Chris Meehan and the ousting of CEO Chris Meehan. Education leadership: Christian Hawkesby has been appointed acting chief executive of NZQA for six months, following Dr Grant Klinkum’s resignation for health reasons. Agritech data fight: A new discussion paper warns New Zealand’s agritech sector is heading into a standoff over who owns and can commercialise farm data collected via sensors, drones and connected equipment. Small business pressure (policy): Reform UK proposes a £30 tax credit for HMRC phone delays and wants to replace GDPR with a “light-touch” privacy model, pointing to reduced compliance burdens for firms. Safety & housing: An Auckland landlord told a coroner he was unaware of pool-gate issues before a toddler drowned in 2022, with the hearing focusing on fence work done to meet new regulations. Energy & investment: FireFly Metals secured up to A$190m for Newfoundland’s Green Bay copper-gold project, targeting a final investment decision by mid-2027. Tourism & travel: Swan Hellenic reported record July results, with revenue up 170% year-on-year on polar demand, while Medusa Beverages entered New Zealand aiming for a major share of the premium beer market by 2029. Community & crime prevention: South Auckland volunteer patrols say they need more funding and equipment to tackle retail crime and violence. Deep-sea mining risk: A report warns Pacific governments could face costly investor-state claims if they tighten rules around deep-sea mining.

Energy & Profits: Meridian Energy posted a record operating profit and says residential and small-business power price rises will be kept below inflation, after drought-hit results last year. Housing & Mortgages: Falling house prices are outpacing higher mortgage rates at the lower end, improving affordability for first-home buyers even as fixed rates climb. Local Government Finance: Labour will back the early stages of the government’s rates-capping legislation, while mayors warn the cap could squeeze infrastructure and services. Public Sector Accountability: Parliament’s Privileges Committee found top MBIE officials in contempt for misleading MPs over a cancelled biometric IT upgrade. Crime & Enforcement: Police launched “Operation Blackout”, arresting 12 over an alleged large Auckland cannabis syndicate operating from multiple rental properties. Online Safety & Regulation: New Zealand moves to restrict social media and AI companion access for under-16s, with platforms facing heavy fines and stricter age-risk duties. Climate & Science: Royal Society Te Apārangi released a peer-reviewed report on marine carbon dioxide removal in Aotearoa, weighing feasibility and costs. Business & Community: Dairy NZ says the sector underpins regional jobs and exports, citing updated analysis of its wider economic impact. Tech & Consumer Products: Odi launched in Australia, pitching a more nutrition-focused baby-food approach. Transport & Infrastructure: Whakatāne’s Main Street will close for the Rally Bay of Plenty ceremony, boosting local business visibility ahead of the October event.

Online Safety Law: New Zealand has introduced the Online Safety (Minimum Age and Child Safety Risk Assessment) Bill, aiming to stop under-16s from holding accounts on major social platforms and to force regular child-safety risk assessments, including for “social AI companions.” Big Tech Scrutiny: The move follows Australia’s under-16 social media ban, with new data suggesting teens are returning to TikTok and other apps as age checks and workarounds (like VPNs) undermine the impact. Māori Insurance Gap: The Financial Markets Authority says Māori are facing higher insurance problems, citing affordability barriers and difficulties insuring whenua Māori and collectively owned land. Markets & Deals: NZX 50 rebounded 0.8% as Fisher & Paykel Healthcare hit new highs; SkyCity confirmed it rejected takeover offers; Heartland’s bid to pause a TSB sale failed, with Kiwibank emerging as a rival suitor. Migration & Skills: CPA Australia welcomed updated Skilled Migrant Category Resident Visa settings that recognise eligible members via an occupational registration pathway. Business & Trade: India’s trade push includes negotiating more FTAs, while NZME reported mixed half-year results with audio driving growth.

Local Government Finance: Government confirms a rates cap for councils, targeting annual increases of 2%–4% (with exemptions for exceptional cases) and setting up an independent regulator; the cap is due to bite from 2029 after councils start planning from 1 July 2027. Energy & Resources: A new competitive petroleum prospecting process has been opened for the Pegasus Basin, aiming to boost understanding of the offshore frontier area and support future energy security. Defence Strategy: Analysis says New Zealand doesn’t need to join AUKUS Pillar I to deepen defence ties, but selective integration could eventually raise questions about nuclear deterrence alignment. Business & Markets: Vulcan Steel lifts FY26 profit and dividend as it builds on recent acquisition momentum, while Tourism Holdings returns to profit and flags takeover interest. Online Safety & Regulation: Royal assent has been given to legislation banning under-16s from creating social media accounts, with heavy fines for non-compliant platforms. Health & Costs: MoneyHub launches a retirement budget builder that compares income vs spending and flags shortfalls early, while schools and rest homes report strain from a winter illness spike. Aviation Sustainability: Wellington Airport reports progress toward net zero and reduced landfill waste, citing big emissions cuts since 2017.

Social Media Crackdown: New Zealand will introduce an Online Safety Bill to ban under-16s from major social platforms, with “high risk” services required to take reasonable steps to verify age (using account info, facial age estimation, digital ID or formal ID) and face penalties up to 10% of global revenue; the move is backed by PM Christopher Luxon and Education Minister Erica Stanford, but coalition partners ACT and NZ First have signalled opposition. Markets & Rates: NZX 50 slipped amid broader Asia weakness as investors digested global tech jitters, while local rate expectations keep the OCR path in focus, with economists pointing to a high hurdle for avoiding further hikes. Trade & Inflation Pressure: July’s trade deficit widened to NZ$1.9b, driven largely by a surge in petroleum import values, while input costs are still rising faster than output prices—keeping margin pressure and sticky inflation concerns alive. Business Appointments: Hotel Council Aotearoa named Alistair Crozier as chief executive from late September, and Jarden expanded its NZ power commodities capability with a new head of energy. Energy & Food Tech: Research highlights a circular microalgae system that could cut cultivated meat growth-media costs by 60–90%, tackling one of the sector’s biggest price hurdles.

Election 2026 Campaigning: Labour has launched its 2026 slogan, “Better Starts Now”, framing the vote around cost of living, jobs, healthcare and housing, while National pushes back on Labour’s fiscal claims. Tax and spending fight: National says Labour’s plan to lift core Crown spending and revenue to 33% of GDP would require far more tax than Labour admits, while PSA warns ruling out a bed tax would force councils into service cuts and user-pays. Local government and tourism levies: Queenstown’s mayor says National’s bed-tax u-turn looks like “policy made in panic”, arguing visitor levies are workable and should help fund infrastructure. Retail and consumer demand: Stats NZ reports retail sales fell 0.5% in the June 2026 quarter, with volume declines across several categories including supermarkets and clothing. Telecoms earnings: Chorus posted a profit lift on higher fibre usage, guided to higher FY2027 earnings and dividends, and flagged AI/data-centre demand as a growth driver. Food fraud and integrity: A food-safety debate highlights concerns about fake or diluted premium products like honey and olive oil, with calls for stronger fraud enforcement. Trade and diplomacy: NZ’s Food Safety Minister Andrew Hoggard is in China for APEC’s food security meeting, focusing on resilient food systems and open trade. Aviation exports: NZAero is restarting trainer aircraft production under a new Thailand deal, potentially worth tens of millions in export revenue over three years. Privacy and patient access: A privacy commissioner complaint has renewed scrutiny of fees for patient notes, with guidance that practices can’t charge patients for copies of their medical records. Infrastructure and logistics pressure: Export NZ points to transport and logistics costs and delays as a top exporter obstacle, with Tauranga Port expansion delays adding freight uncertainty.

Tax Policy Shake-up: National has ruled out a bed tax and a bank tax in a second term, after previously agreeing to look at a bed tax via Auckland’s city deal—National says there’s “no way” to do an accommodation levy without raising costs for Kiwis, and it will use existing mechanisms to help councils with tourism costs instead. Banking & Corporate Earnings: Fisher & Paykel Healthcare says it will bank $23m in refunded US tariffs and has lifted its profit forecast for the year to 31 March 2027, citing strong hospital demand and improved margins. Tech & Skills: Northland businesses are being urged to embrace AI, with local leaders arguing fear is the biggest barrier and that practical training helps firms use tools for content, data and productivity. Trade & Growth Links: New Zealand and Australia are pushing deeper trade ties with India, aiming to double bilateral trade over three years under the upgraded strategic partnership and the new India–NZ FTA. Infrastructure Supply Chain: PT Inka has shipped another 120 container wagons to New Zealand for KiwiRail, lifting total deliveries to 250 with more due later this year and into November.

Fiscal Policy: Labour releases its election fiscal strategy, promising a return to surplus by 2029/30 and aiming to cut net debt over time, while also pledging to restore the Reserve Bank’s dual mandate so employment is considered alongside inflation. Banking: Kiwibank reports full-year profit of $174m (down 9%), with lending up $3.1b to $38.9b as net interest margin tightens and costs rise. Trade & Travel: Thailand and New Zealand move closer on business links as Thai Airways resumes direct Bangkok–Auckland flights next year, restoring a long-missing air-freight and tourism route. Infrastructure & Industry: Northland’s proposed shipyard and dry dock at Marsden Point clears a fast-track hurdle with a substantive application lodged for environmental approval. Energy & Safety: Engineering New Zealand urges the Government to reverse electrical safety rule changes over PEN conductor switching, warning of preventable serious injury or death. Environment & Planning: Environmental groups and the Waikato River Authority warn late RMA replacement amendments and deferred PC1 requirements could delay freshwater restoration. Property: More homeowners are choosing renovations over selling at losses, with some borrowing up to $600k to stay put. Security & Crime: Diesel-related burglaries more than double year-on-year, renewing fuel theft fears. Sports Business: Black Foils lead Group A at SailGP after a record-speed day in Sassnitz.

Defamation Ruling: A High Court judge has found TikTok creator Harnoor Gill liable for defaming Wellington businessman Amandeep Bakshi over a video alleging mistreatment of employees, with a former employee also held liable after reposting. Transport Upgrade: Wellington is set to expand regional rail with 18 battery-electric Tūhono units from 2029, linking the capital to Masterton and Palmerston North and aiming for a new timetable in 2030. AI Security Risk: A new analysis warns that as organisations embed generative AI deeper into day-to-day work, they’re also seeing more security and cost incidents, with risk shifting beyond simple web chat use. Waste & Remediation Demand: New Zealand’s environmental services sector is growing as redevelopment, ageing buildings and stricter compliance drive more contaminated land investigations and asbestos removal. Election Politics & Immigration: RNZ reports New Zealand First’s immigration rhetoric is intensifying ahead of the election, following controversy over comments in Parliament and renewed focus on trade and voter targeting. Cancer Centre Push: ACT has put a National Cancer Centre at the centre of its campaign, proposing purpose-built campuses in Auckland and Christchurch. US Beef Tariffs Spillover: US moves to temporarily ease beef import tariffs have triggered backlash from cattle producers, with implications for global beef pricing that will be watched closely by NZ exporters. Lotto Win: Lotto Second Division paid out to 13 players ($25,851 each) while Powerball remains at $18m after no win.

Auckland Housing & Property: Residential auction volumes look set to lift as winter bottoms out, with interest.co.nz tracking 214 auctions (15-21 Aug) and a low 36% sold-under-hammer rate, while next week’s calendar shows bigger consolidated events. Banking & M&A: The High Court has reserved its decision on whether TSB trustees can vote on Heartland’s $620m bid, leaving the deal in limbo pending a ruling. Finance & Markets: NZX 50 rose for a third week as earnings season gathered pace, with Spark and Ebos strong, while investors also digest US bond-market jitters. Health Policy & Medicines: A breast cancer petitioner says Pharmac’s response to Keytruda funding is “disgraceful,” highlighting the wider debate over medicine value versus budget limits. Infrastructure & Industry: Northland’s Marsden Point shipyard and dry dock fast-track application has been lodged, aiming to cut reliance on overseas dry docks and boost local jobs and skills. Energy & Costs: A report argues electricity prices need an extra $26b investment, feeding into the wider cost-of-living pressure. Sports Business: New Zealand Cricket forecasts a $7.3m deficit and pulls 40 Super Smash matches off TV, citing an accounting issue and rising costs.

Capital Markets: The NZX 50 rose for a third week as earnings season gathered pace, with Spark jumping 12% and Ebos up 7.2%, while investors digested US Treasury bond-market moves tied to Scott Bessent’s “bigger toolkit” to steady long-dated yields. Corporate & Investing: Heartland is pushing ahead with its reverse-mortgage growth push and its proposed $620m TSB acquisition, aiming to create a larger specialist bank if the deal clears. Policy & Regulation: Commerce minister Cameron Brewer’s capital markets reforms consultation is open until Sept 15, giving the public more time to weigh in. Health & Politics: ACT is campaigning on Paul Henry’s pledge for a purpose-built “Starship for Cancer” centre in Auckland and Christchurch, with indicative capital costs around $2b. Regional Business & Trade: Thailand and New Zealand are deepening cooperation across food, clean energy and advanced technology, with trade and investment links built on existing free-trade frameworks. Tourism & Travel Costs: Fiji’s new 5% tourism levy from Sept 1 is drawing backlash from Australia’s travel industry, with concerns it will hit travellers who already booked. Local Economy & Community: Manurewa rangatahi are calling for more youth spaces, events and job-seeking support, while Pacific dementia carers are urging stronger local-board-backed support.

Trade & Energy Costs: Stats NZ says total imports rose to $89.8b in the year ended July 2026, up $9.0b (11%), with petroleum and petroleum products adding $2.3b (23%) as diesel, petrol and jet fuel prices lifted the bill. Public Health & Illicit Trade: Tobacco sales fell again, with volume down more than 20% in 2025 and more than halved over the decade, but officials warn an accelerated drop in legal products may reflect cheaper black-market cigarettes. Workplace Relations: The EMA appoints employment lawyer Matthew Dearing as Head of Legal and General Counsel, aiming to bolster specialist support as employment law changes ramp up. Labour Mobility for Pacific Workers: Farmers criticise a new 30-hour weekly guarantee under the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility scheme, saying it reduces seasonal flexibility and adds bureaucracy. Insurance & Genetics: An Auckland woman says genetic testing likely saved her life, but fears over higher life-insurance premiums are deterring others from testing. Local Economy & Community: Tauranga is set to host India-NZ centenary sport events in November, including two Black Caps ODIs against India at Bay Oval.

Banking & Housing: Heartland Bank’s own investor materials show reverse mortgage momentum accelerating, with annualised growth rising from 14% in Q1 to 18.5% by Q4, while asset quality stays tight (NPL 0.06% and weighted average current LVR 27.5%). The bank is targeting FY2027 NPAT of at least $102m and ROE of at least 7.5%, with reverse mortgage growth above 18% in NZ and Australia, as it prepares for the TSB transaction. Legal Watch: A High Court injunction hearing to block the proposed TSB–Heartland amalgamation has concluded, with the judge reserving decision after a Taranaki group argued the community lacked adequate information. Markets: NZX 50 slipped slightly as earnings largely landed as expected; Auckland Airport reported underlying profit of $309m and passenger numbers up 1.6% to 19.04m. Energy: A government report says NZ solar generation hit a record in 2025, rising 66% year-on-year, alongside record geothermal output and renewables reaching 47.7% of energy supply. Tech & Business: Spark’s results show a mixed picture, with its under-review digital services revenue down 3.4% to $372m, while the wider group outlook remains supported by long-term tailwinds. Manufacturing: South Auckland aluminium can maker Recorp expands into Australia, supplying beverage firms from its Manukau plant with a focus on flexible formats and lower minimum orders.