AGP Executive Report

Grocery costs and competition: The Greens have unveiled “Affordable Kai”, promising to nationalise 120 Woolworths and Foodstuffs supermarkets into a government-owned chain, KiwiMart, to break the duopoly and cut prices, with a stated $2.8b price tag over the policy’s rollout. Housing affordability: National says it will widen access to the First Home Loan by lifting the income cap to $300,000 so more buyers can use a 5% deposit, arguing current thresholds exclude many earners. Monetary policy pass-through: Reserve Bank assistant governor Karen Silk says higher OCR rates are not feeding through to term deposit rates as fast as mortgage rates, pointing to bank liquidity and “depositor inertia”. Banking job cuts: ANZ has proposed closing its Dunedin contact centre and reducing 15 roles to two, shifting work to larger hubs in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch. FASD warning signs: Parliament’s petitions committee recommends changing alcohol regulations so warning signs about fetal alcohol spectrum disorder must be displayed in licensed liquor premises. Earthquake repairs court fight: A Court of Appeal ruling has fed into a class action seeking about $80m over EQC quake repairs shortfalls. Security law rollout: Security staff have been advised not to use new citizen’s arrest powers until training is in place, as uncertainty remains after the laws took effect. Trade and investment: New Zealand is named as an exclusive importer/distributor partner for Philippine Saba bananas entering new markets via Asia Fruit Logistica Hong Kong. Disaster update: Rescuers in Nepal have pulled two men alive from a hydropower tunnel after floods, as the country continues large-scale recovery.

NZ–Canada Trade: Trade Minister Todd McClay says New Zealand is pushing to deepen ties with Canada, with an announcement on two-way trade “coming soon” after talks with counterpart Dominic LeBlanc and a focus on CPTPP opportunities. Homelessness & Services: A homeless man died outside Auckland offices of National MPs, reigniting concerns about gaps in emergency housing and support services as rough sleeping deaths continue. Health Infrastructure: Rangiora’s new after-hours urgent care facility at the Rangiora Health Hub is on track to open before Christmas, with radiology services and extended hours aimed at easing pressure on Christchurch clinics. Food & Feed Economics: Arable farmers are frustrated that they’re losing out to cheaper imported animal feeds like palm kernel expeller, arguing the domestic grain sector lacks support to compete. Crypto Crime Cooperation: US and UK prosecutors and agencies have agreed a framework to pursue transnational crypto and cyber-enabled investment scams, with parallel investigations into shared targets. Insurance Disputes Tribunal: The Disputes Tribunal ordered a woman to pay $10,000 over false insurance claims, highlighting scrutiny of claim reopenings and alleged fraud. Global Trade Links: A New Zealand firm is set to import and distribute Philippine Saba bananas in New Zealand after agreements signed at Asia Fruit Logistica Hong Kong.

Airline Disruption: British Airways admitted a booking/ticketing mistake after a mum and baby were refused boarding in New Zealand, leaving them stranded at the airport—another reminder of how fast travel plans can unravel. Regulatory Scrutiny: US federal regulators have opened an investigation into Tesla’s steering-wheel-free “Cybercab” taxis, raising questions about compliance with safety rules after the Austin rollout. Health System Accountability: A Health & Disability Commissioner report found systemic failures in triage and referral processes linked to an ERCP procedure, with an “adverse comment” issued over documentation. Banking & Housing: New Zealand’s low-deposit mortgage lending is surging again, with banks’ high-LVR shares rising even as home values remain under pressure. Construction Costs: Diesel is pushing building costs higher again, with QV CostBuilder showing residential costs up over the quarter after a brief lull. Local Roads Funding: The NZ Transport Agency will reduce the Funding Assistance Rate for more than a dozen councils over the next three years, landing just as rates-capping pressures hit. Tourism Deal: Vietnam Airlines, Saigontourist and Distinction Hotels have signed a five-year MoU to grow two-way tourism with joint packages and promotions. Pacific Politics: Kiribati was snubbed at the Pacific Islands Forum closing, calling it “disappointing” after its delegation was omitted from acknowledgements. Climate & Disaster Relief: Nepal flood survivors say many have lost homes and businesses, with limited insurance coverage compounding the damage. Business & Jobs: ANZ staff in Dunedin are upset about proposed cuts to the contact centre, with work to be moved to hubs in Auckland, Christchurch and Wellington. Crypto Crime: US FinCEN flagged $12.7b in crypto scam flows tied to overseas fraud rings, increasing pressure on exchanges and stablecoin players. Tech & Media: Sky TV apologised after a live sports broadcast was cut to a gambling ad during Jai Arrow’s walkout, sparking viewer outrage.

Markets & Housing: New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 notched its biggest weekly gain since June, up 1.5% for the week, as bond markets steadied and investors looked past Middle East risk; ANZ and Westpac led Friday’s move, while construction activity data lifted materials and retailers broadly held up. Construction Watch: Stats NZ showed building work in the June quarter came in stronger than expected, with $8.15b put in place and a first positive annual comparison since late 2023. Corporate Moves: Bremworth’s suitor David Ferrier has lodged a partial takeover at 90 cents a share, while PTC is expanding its Australia–New Zealand footprint with a new Melbourne hub for Onshape. Policy & Trade: New Zealand is set to shift selected visitor and transit visa applications online from October 1, and the India–New Zealand FTA is expected to come into force next month with 100% duty-free access for Indian exports. Banking & Jobs: ANZ is considering closing its Dunedin contact centre and moving roles elsewhere, with staff consultation underway. Energy & Environment: EDS has filed a High Court appeal over fast-track conditions for the Haldon Solar Farm, arguing the regime is delegating key ecological decisions.

Pacific Trade & Security: New Zealand is stepping up in the Pacific Islands Forum Troika as Luxon and Peters push for more regional action on economic prosperity, security and resilience after leaders agreed on missile-test transparency—though Naoero broke ranks on the communiqué. NZ–India Trade: Luxon hints the NZ–India free trade deal could start as early as next month, promising quicker cost relief for exporters and aiming to lift bilateral trade to US$5b. RBNZ/Markets: Global rate expectations shifted as US Fed governor Christopher Waller signalled openness to pausing hikes if inflation cools; NZ markets are set to track the improved risk tone. Retail & Privacy: Auckland retailers are being warned off “wall of shame” displays of suspected shoplifters, with privacy and harm risks flagged under the Privacy Act. Liquor Wholesale Restructuring: Metcash will wind down Tasman Liquor wholesale by December 2026, affecting about 100 jobs, while keeping retail under Allied Retail. AI Skills Push: Lumify Group appoints new executive leaders to tackle the AI-ready workforce gap across Australia and New Zealand. Housing/Transport Politics: Act is targeting road funding being used for public art and monuments, arguing maintenance and safety should come first. Crime & Courts: Operation Van sentencing continues, with a Rotorua-based meth syndicate “manager” jailed over 17 years. Business Confidence: Auckland Business Chambers reports a sharp rebound in confidence, driven by easing inflation and interest-rate anxiety.

Reserve Bank & mortgages: New Zealand’s central bank lifted the Official Cash Rate to 2.75% for a second straight hike, with banks moving to raise floating mortgage rates and economists warning the pass-through could bite harder for vulnerable borrowers. Housing market watch: The RBNZ said “something has definitely changed in the housing market”, while markets digested what a gradual tightening path means for prices and borrowing. Dairy earnings: Fonterra flagged full-year underlying earnings at the top end of guidance (60–70 NZ cents per share) and pointed to a strong dividend outlook. Trade deal momentum: The India–New Zealand free trade agreement is set to start next month, giving Indian exports 100% duty-free access to NZ and duty-free access for NZ to India across thousands of tariff lines. Employment enforcement: An Auckland and Cromwell restaurant/takeaway and its owner were hit with $130,000 in penalties after wage arrears and minimum employment standards breaches. Markets: The NZX 50 slipped as dividend-related ex-dates weighed, while turnover stayed led by Auckland International Airport.

Employment & penalties: SSM Investments Ltd and owner Shazneen Shariza Khan were fined $130,000 by the Employment Relations Authority for exploiting five workers, after earlier wage-arrears orders totalling $147,001. Digital marketing spend: A New Zealand-focused commentary warns that most online ads fail to earn meaningful attention, arguing businesses risk overspending on digital if they don’t measure real engagement. Tax fairness debate: A piece asks “Who’s carrying NZ’s tax load?”, pointing to heavier reliance on income tax and GST while capital gains and wealth receive lighter treatment. Cyber security push: Revolution InfoSec is rolling out SecurityCentral to help business leaders manage cyber risk in plain business terms, with partner-friendly reselling. Youth job support pressure: Labour and Greens warn Jobseeker rule changes could hit Pacific families hardest, with 18- and 19-year-olds facing a parental assistance test. Energy & jobs: Simeon Brown says an LNG terminal remains “critically important” after Methanex’s Taranaki shutdown and Māui gas decline raise supply and employment concerns. Housing & rates: The Reserve Bank lifted the OCR to 2.75%, with commentary split on how much will flow through to mortgage rates and what it means for the housing market. Climate adaptation: A leading IPCC author warns Aotearoa must shift from climate talk to building resilience into farms, cities and infrastructure as the 1.5°C risk grows. Hospitality roadmap: The 2026 Hospitality Summit produced 13 more recommendations on employment, alcohol policy, data/compliance and skills. Building industry awards: BIF NZ launches “Best in Build”, the first awards programme for the building supply chain. Transport & logistics risk: National Council of Logistics Fellows urges freight operators to prepare for sustained El Niño-driven volatility. Regional infrastructure: Gisborne’s historic rail bridge is set to become a pedestrian walkway, with works due to start in October.

Monetary Policy Shock: The Reserve Bank lifted the Official Cash Rate to 2.75% for a second straight move, stressing the path isn’t fixed and will depend on incoming data as inflation sits at 4.1% and growth remains uneven. Housing & Rates Watch: RBNZ messaging is feeding through unevenly—deposit rates are not rising as fast as mortgage costs, while analysts point to a “definitely changed” housing backdrop. Market Pulse: The NZX 50 climbed about 1% after the OCR decision, led by heavyweight gains and a lift in sectors tied to energy and dairy, while global markets slipped on oil-driven inflation fears. Building Momentum: Stats NZ reported annual home consents up strongly—stand-alone houses and multi-unit dwellings both rising, with medium-density now just over half of new consents, though there are signs of a slowdown at the margins. KiwiSaver Fix for Rural Workers: Parliament moved to remove KiwiSaver access barriers for farm workers in employer-provided housing and to better match how farms are actually bought. Methanex Fallout: Methanex’s NZ shutdown plans are set to ripple through regional jobs and gas supply debates. Trade & Pacific Links: New Zealand and the US are backing a Cook Islands port upgrade at Penrhyn, adding to wider Pacific investment and cooperation efforts.

Markets & Rates: US Treasury yields pushed higher as Middle East tensions lifted oil and revived inflation fears, with NZ-facing implications as global rate expectations firm. Dairy Watch: Global Dairy Trade prices were modestly up (+0.9% USD; +0.6% NZD), with protein demand supporting prices while cheese lagged. Housing & Construction: Stats NZ says new dwelling consents rose 21% year-on-year to 40,908 in the year to July, led by standalone houses and multi-units; in Auckland, Barfoot & Thompson reported sales down but prices broadly flat, with buyers waiting for confirmation prices will rise. Transport Policy: Auckland Council has signed off public engagement options for congestion charging, with the “rat-run” avoidance problem shaping the revised approach. Energy & Jobs: Methanex says it will sell its NZ gas entitlements and indefinitely idle its Taranaki plant from early 2027, citing declining gas supply. Super & Cost of Living: A report backs more flexible NZ Super start dates to improve affordability without simply pushing the burden to later years. Workforce & Welfare: Nearly 10,000 public servants are set to strike on 9 September; CPAG warns youth Jobseeker Support cuts could push costs onto families. Business & Tech: Boomi says HEB Construction has built a single source of truth for tender bios and resumes; OneAdvanced launched an AI risk management platform for ANZ organisations. Tourism & Hospitality: RNZ reports close to 3,000 hospitality businesses stopped trading in a year, highlighting a two-speed recovery.

Serious Fraud Office overhaul: New Zealand has passed legislation expanding Serious Fraud Office powers for digital investigations, including easier access to electronic evidence and oral search warrants to cut delays in fast-moving fraud cases. Rates and markets: The NZX 50 slipped 0.9% on September 1 as oil prices rose on renewed US-Iran tensions and bond yields pushed up, with the Reserve Bank expected to lift the OCR at its Wednesday review. Mortgage pressure: Centrix says mortgage arrears edged up to 1.22% in July as banks raised rates and unemployment climbed, though delinquencies remain below a year ago. Housing finance options: Reverse mortgages are moving from “niche” to a more common retirement funding tool as house prices outpace incomes and first-home buyers enter later. Woolworths jobs: Woolworths NZ proposes cutting about 130 customer care roles by integrating support with its Sydney operations, drawing union concern over remote workers’ limited redeployment. Logistics tech: Magaya is integrating PortConnect data into its freight platform, aiming to update container movements, vessel schedules and border clearance status inside one workflow. Pacific security funding: Australia’s PM Albanese is set to announce a $600m Pacific package to tackle illicit drug smuggling, including enhanced maritime patrols and intelligence sharing.

Middle East shocks markets: Oil jumped and US stocks slipped after US strikes hit Iranian rocket launchers near the Strait of Hormuz, lifting Brent back above US$90 and pushing bond yields higher. Pacific infrastructure & geopolitics: The US will fund a US$60m deep-sea port at Penrhyn in the Cook Islands, with New Zealand managing the build and contributing US$10m, as Pacific influence battles intensify. Public sector pay fight: The PSA says the Government should settle collective bargaining with 10,000 public servants rather than attacking workers planning a 9 September strike. Telecom competition: One NZ has proposed combining radio access networks with 2degrees in a joint wholesale company (RANCo), aiming for efficiency while keeping retail competition. Auckland transport planning: Auckland Transport released options to replace western rail level crossings between Kingsland and Mount Albert to support more frequent City Rail Link services. Housing & construction pressures: Greater Wellington updated flood protection costs for Te Awa Kairangi to $535.4m, while diesel rebound is lifting residential construction costs. Business stress signals: Centrix data shows about 3,000 hospitality businesses stopped trading in a year, with liquidations up sharply. Local dealmaking: Heartland’s proposed TSB acquisition would expand reverse-mortgage scale, with shareholders to vote 30 September. Consumer & tech: Epson launched an A3 desktop dye-sublimation printer for small businesses, and GeoMe rolled out curbside pickup for independent retailers across Australia and New Zealand.

Markets & Rates: World stocks ended August on a cautious note as US-Iran tensions lifted oil prices above US$90 and pushed borrowing costs in Japan and Germany to multi-year highs, reviving worries about inflation and keeping rate hikes on the table. NZ Economy: ANZ’s Business Outlook put confidence at 53.7 in August (down from 56.1) but firms reported a lift in actual trading versus a year ago, suggesting the bounce-back is already underway. Student Loans Politics: National’s plan to cut NZ-based student loan repayments from 12% to 10% from April next year, while raising overseas penalties and interest, is drawing fresh debate about whether graduates can “take skills offshore” without paying. Infrastructure & Construction: AECOM has been appointed design partner for the Warkworth to Te Hana section of the Northland Corridor motorway, backing safer, higher-standard upgrades to SH1. Health Demand Pressure: Local Doctors Ōtara’s overnight clinic demand has more than doubled forecasts, with 1,417 overnight presentations in July. Business Leadership: One New Zealand has named Nick Judd as CEO, succeeding Jason Paris. Corporate & Tech: Nav Wireless and 9Rayz deployed an FSOC optical wireless link across Auckland’s Waitematā Harbour, highlighting new connectivity options. Pacific Geopolitics: China’s influence in the Pacific got a boost as several leaders skipped the Palau forum, complicating unity amid US-China rivalry.

Air New Zealand: The airline posted a NZ$336m full-year pre-tax loss, citing soaring fuel costs and major engine maintenance issues, and stopped short of promising an immediate return to profit. KiwiSaver Costs: New research from Simplicity says higher KiwiSaver fees haven’t delivered higher after-fee returns over the past decade, echoing global findings that many active funds lag after costs. Cost of Living & Food: Stats NZ data shows Kiwis are eating more chicken as other proteins get pricier, with chicken holding up as the more affordable option. Monetary Policy Watch: Economists expect the RBNZ to keep tightening to lift the OCR toward around 3% to bring inflation back to target, with the recovery still fragile. Retirement Villages: Labour has pledged a mandatory three-month timeframe for operators to repay residents’ capital, a key demand from the Retirement Village Residents Association. Health & Workforces: GenPro launched “Seven Steps to Restore General Practice,” calling for a big funding boost and longer-term certainty for frontline GP services. Housing Fast-Track: A fast-track housing fight is escalating as communities and mayors push for pauses or tighter rules, warning infrastructure won’t keep up. Elections & Coalition Lines: Luxon says staying in the Paris climate deal is non-negotiable in coalition talks, setting up friction with ACT and NZ First. Elder Living Costs: Grey Power says older Kiwis are struggling with basic expenses and wants policy changes that actually cover necessities. Trade & Labour Allegations: Shane Jones renewed attacks on the kiwifruit industry, alleging exploitative labour practices and calling for a review of Zespri’s legal export monopoly.

Indo-Pacific Defence: Senior military leaders from 32 countries will meet in Victoria from Monday for the Indo-Pacific Chiefs of Defence conference, with New Zealand among the expected attendees and venue security supported by Victoria police. Tourism & Travel: A new report says geopolitical volatility is reshaping travel behaviour, with “rapid substitution” of destinations, routes and timing rather than widespread cancellations. Disaster Watch: Nepal-China floods and mudslides have killed at least 734 people, with thousands missing, including 261 foreign nationals reported unaccounted for. Student Loans: National says it will cut the compulsory student loan repayment rate from 12% to 10% from 1 April 2027 for borrowers who stay in New Zealand, while tightening rules for those who leave. Gig Economy: Workers First will launch “Gig Workers First” in Wellington on 1 September to organise rideshare and food delivery drivers and push for fair employment status for platform workers. Health & Aged Care: Age Brightly launches MindThrive, a three-month programme aimed at catching treatable drivers of cognitive decline before dementia is diagnosed. Housing/Construction Compliance: Road traffic noise compliance is increasingly shaping new home approvals, with developers needing road noise certificates in designated corridors. ACC & Rehab: MoneyHub reports ACC paid $8.23b in 2024/25 across 2.29m claims, highlighting ongoing demand for rehabilitation services including subsidised chiropractic care.

Student Loans & Talent Retention: National says it will cut compulsory student loan repayments from 12% to 10% from April 2027 for grads who stay in NZ, while hitting overseas-based borrowers with higher interest and tougher enforcement, including limits on KiwiSaver access until loans are cleared. RBNZ Watch: Bank economists broadly expect a second 25bp OCR hike on Sept 2, lifting the rate toward 2.75% as the central bank works to bring inflation back near 2%. Education & AI: An Education Review Office study finds AI is widespread in classrooms, but more than half of teachers say it’s harming students’ critical thinking and creativity, pushing calls for a national AI literacy framework. Aged Care Reform: A ministerial advisory group warns the aged care model is at a turning point, recommending major systemic change and price uplifts to avoid a looming residential bed shortage. Cruise Economy: Princess Cruises has kicked off the 2026/27 season in Auckland and expects over 200,000 passengers this season, with port calls set to double from 2028/29. Ports & Profit: Port of Tauranga reported record profit—$155.3m underlying net profit after tax—despite slightly lower cargo volumes. Tourism & Safety: Rotorua rafting merger approval clears the way for a combined operator, aiming to improve long-term viability amid rising compliance and operating costs. Local Business & Community: Tautai Contemporary Pacific Arts Trust says it has lost its main funding source after 40 years, warning of a major turning point for Pacific artists. Wildfire Update: Hawk Fire is now 98% contained, with crews continuing mop-up and repairs as rain and muddy conditions complicate access.

Aviation & Tourism: Air New Zealand is facing fresh scrutiny after reporting a very challenging year with losses reported at $336m–$242m, while the cruise season kicks off with expectations of nearly 200,000 passengers and Princess Cruises planning to double NZ port calls from 2028-29, lifting the regional tourism outlook. Energy & Housing: Plug-in “balcony solar” is now legal in the UK, and New Zealand is watching closely as Australia faces pressure to follow—highlighting how fast rules can shift household energy costs and uptake. Labour & Skills: Labour pledges $21m a year for Māori-led trades training if elected, aiming to support up to 3,000 people with a contestable grant fund for Māori providers. Welfare & Youth: A welfare bill passed under urgency will cut Jobseeker payments for 18- and 19-year-olds from Nov 2026 where parents earn over $65,000, alongside changes to accommodation supplements. Business & Finance: BNZ and Kiwibank are gaining mortgage market share as ASB and ANZ lose ground, while Auckland’s international student growth is strong but flagged as a “conversion gap” into long-term local jobs and businesses. Trade & Industry: Apparel exporters are urging India’s commerce minister to regulate cotton yarn exports as prices jump about 60%, warning it’s squeezing competitiveness. Regional & Geopolitics: Pacific leaders meet in Palau amid rising US-China competition, with security and control over ocean resources high on the agenda.