AGP Executive Report

Markets & FX: NZX 50 inched up in a mixed Asia session as Wall Street tech weakness weighed on regional stocks, while oil climbed on US-Iran tensions; the kiwi slipped and investors looked ahead to NZ inflation data. Energy & infrastructure: Fletcher Building secured up to $60m in government support to keep Golden Bay Cement operating, while Lodestone Energy began work on a 31.5MW solar PV plant in NZ. AI & data centres: Critical Resources added a cooling specialist to push two-phase spray cooling for AI data centres, targeting energy and water constraints. Trade & geopolitics: ASEAN foreign ministers meet in Manila with West Asia, trade, energy and supply-chain resilience on the agenda; Cambodia’s RCEP trade jumped 24% in H1 2026. Wool & compliance: A digital wool traceability platform launched as EU rules tighten, and Woolworths reassured shoppers on egg supply amid bird flu precautions. Business & deals: Aon says transactional risk insurance demand is rising across APAC as M&A and post-deal issues increase. Local economy: Lower Hutt’s Cross Valley Link remains low in the national transport pipeline, but council is still backing route protection work.

Cement Security Deal: The Government has granted Golden Bay Cement up to $60m to keep its Northland Portland plant operating to at least 2040, after an assessment found carbon and rising costs would otherwise force closure and an import-only model. Election Economy: NZ First’s $1b offshore oil and gas survey pledge is drawing fresh pushback, with critics saying it’s a gamble and Luxon calls it “deeply ironic” given the party’s past role in banning new exploration. Workplace Law: Labour and Greens say the Employment Leave Bill would leave many workers worse off, arguing it ties leave to standard hours and entrenches unequal access. Education Reporting: New colour-coded school report tables are getting mixed reactions from principals, who warn parents may judge schools by the summary rather than the full report. Biosecurity: Mainland Poultry has put 500,000 layer hens into lockdown as New Zealand responds to bird flu (H5N1) risks. Trade Policy: The EU’s new livestock strategy signals welfare-based import standards, raising concerns NZ could fall behind on import rules. Tourism & Retail: Everyday Wine says doubling sales after shifting online, while car rental demand is rising with visitor numbers. Sports Business: Ryan Fox’s Open win adds a major prize boost, with tax deductions expected to cut his take-home.

Election 2026 Energy Policy: NZ First leader Winston Peters says the party will campaign for a $1b offshore oil and gas reserves survey, aiming to build a national subsurface dataset across energy, geothermal and CO₂ storage, with results expected within a year and a “pathway” within six years. Regulation & Rights: The firearms regulator has rebuked a lobby group after claims of police bullying and standover tactics, as a new independent regulator is set to operate from September with police providing only operational support. AI Data Centres & Local Impact: Southland residents are questioning a proposed US$3b AI data centre near Invercargill, arguing they weren’t given enough say on transparency and power use, while Invest NZ pitches the wider AI investment case. Agribusiness & Climate: The Texel Sheep Society is pushing long-term methane reduction through breeding, citing international research showing potential emission cuts for the UK sheep sector. Cost of Living & Retirement Politics: An RNZ-Reid poll finds voters more open to means-testing superannuation than raising the pension age, while support for compulsory KiwiSaver drops when paired with an age increase. Local Economy & Infrastructure: Auckland pool owners are driving strong demand for resurfacing and repainting as ageing pool stock reaches end-of-life.

Inflation Watch: Bank economists say New Zealand’s June-quarter inflation is likely to hit or crack 4.0%, potentially the highest in two years, ahead of next Tuesday’s CPI release; the Reserve Bank has lifted the Official Cash Rate to 2.50% and now forecasts 3.9% for the quarter, while petrol and diesel jumps in the Selected Price Indexes add pressure. Economic Outlook: Infometrics flags a possible recovery path for growth to 2.7% by mid-next year, but warns it hinges on overseas geopolitics and whether fuel costs stay lower after Middle East volatility. Housing Costs: A property-market commentary argues that “holding on” can be far more expensive than headline price gains, once servicing costs and selling expenses are counted. Local Governance: Debate continues over Hamilton’s long-closed underground passenger station, with calls to re-open it to revitalise the central city. Trade & Growth: New Zealand-led FIT trade partnership expands to 19 members, while NZ-Swiss trade talks are set to begin, adding momentum for exporters. Biosecurity: Conservation groups warn bird flu could devastate parts of Hawke’s Bay’s gannet colony, as H5 spreads and DoC/partners prepare staged responses.

Air Travel & Reliability: Air New Zealand says June on-time performance improved, with 86% of flights arriving within 15 minutes of schedule, despite disruptions including a Wellington airport fire and winter weather. Cabin Upgrades: The airline will retrofit Boeing 777-300ER aircraft with new Business Premier suites and refreshed economy seats to lift consistency across its international fleet. Auckland Events Boost: Auckland is set for a big economic lift tonight with three sell-out sports events, including Warriors vs Dragons and All Blacks vs Ireland, pushing hotel occupancy and transport demand. Cook Strait Ferries Politics: ACT’s David Seymour questions whether the government “needs” to run Cook Strait ferries after Winston Peters confirmed a state-owned operator, arguing the $1.7b bill is a taxpayer burden. Local Governance & Community Safety: Auckland councillors refuse to attend Manurewa Local Board meetings while a member is under Serious Fraud Office investigation; separately, glass pipes sold near South Auckland schools sparks calls for stronger council controls. Health & Policy: RNZ reports on whether KiwiSaver members could handle a longer market downturn, warning loss-averse investors may panic if declines drag on. Global Trade & Diplomacy: The US says it’s “deeply concerned” by Papua New Guinea ordering closure of Taiwan’s office, framing it as Beijing intimidation. Currency & Finance (India): India’s central bank unit is inviting bids for polymer currency notes, starting with Rs 10 and Rs 20, as part of a potential shift away from paper.

Trade & Tariffs: New Zealand’s FIT Partnership meeting in Auckland put small, trade-reliant economies front and centre, with Trade Minister Todd McClay arguing tariffs raise costs and add uncertainty for exporters. Markets: The NZX 50 snapped a two-week run of gains as Middle East tensions lifted oil prices and weighed on travel and airline stocks, while SkyCity’s property sale helped cushion the week. Aviation & Tech: Roblox says it will test its AI “Build” tool in New Zealand from July 28, letting age-verified users turn prompts into playable games. Energy & Transport: PM Modi flagged India’s first hydrogen-powered passenger train as a “Make in India” win, with expansion plans that could matter for regional rail innovation. Agriculture: The US USDA lifted 2026 and 2027 milk production estimates, while adjusting price forecasts as supply growth continues. Politics: Former Labour minister Rino Tirikatene has joined NZ First as the party pushes rebuilding hope and opportunity ahead of the next election.

Markets & FX: NZX 50 snapped a two-week run as Middle East tensions lifted oil prices and weighed on travel stocks and Air New Zealand, while Summerset slid after data showed housing stayed subdued; the kiwi dollar was set for a third weekly gain on growing bets the RBNZ will hike again. Housing & Rates: Summerset’s drop followed Real Estate Institute data pointing to fewer sales and a weaker house price index, as economists line up June inflation figures. Energy & Transport: Petrol and diesel fell month-on-month in Stats NZ’s SPI, but both remain sharply higher year-on-year; two new Cook Strait ferries—Kupe and Cook—will be run by KiwiRail for 30 years. Trade & Diplomacy: New Zealand and Switzerland agreed to a Trade and Investment Dialogue covering trade, economic security, e-commerce, investment and sustainability, with officials to meet in September. Business & Governance: A report says 93% of finance professionals worry about the integrity of AI-generated insights, pushing for stronger governance; Stantec appointed Dr Cathy Bebelman to lead climate and sustainability technical work in Auckland. Environment & Risk: A second H5 bird flu case was confirmed in Wairarapa, with wildlife tourism operators bracing for spread. Corporate Moves: Gull and NPD completed their merger to form NPDGull, launching a unified commercial fuel program across about 240 sites. People: Former finance minister Sir Bill Birch died aged 92.

AI & Gaming: Roblox is rolling out “Build”, a mobile-first AI tool that turns text prompts into playable games, with public alpha starting in New Zealand on 28 July for age-verified users aged nine and up. Local Government Reform: Wellington’s amalgamation draft would create a single regional authority plus geography-based community councils (catchments, not population), with mayors due to submit final proposals to the Government by 9 August. Regional Politics: Marlborough and Kaikōura are asking residents for support via a survey on a proposed council merger under the Head Start programme, closing 29 July. Trade & Diplomacy: Trade Minister Todd McClay says New Zealand and Switzerland will set up a Trade and Investment Dialogue covering trade, economic security, e-commerce, investment and sustainability. Economy & Markets: The NZX 50 fell for a fourth session as investor sentiment cooled across Asia, with Meridian weighing on the index. Social Services: Shakti Women’s Refuge has opened its third Auckland safehouse, citing rising demand for culturally specialist refuge support. Food & Mobility: New Zealand’s vehicle rental market is shifting toward self-drive regional travel as international arrivals recover, with group and corporate transport demand also growing.

Markets: The NZX 50 slipped for a fourth straight session, down 0.1% to 13,615, dragged by weaker Asia tech sentiment after reports ASML may lift chip-machine prices; Meridian also weighed on the index as wholesale power prices eased, while Mainfreight rose on firmer early-year momentum and Sanford gained after an analyst upgrade. Central Banking: The Bank of Korea lifted rates for the first time in 3½ years, warning inflation will stay high, while the dollar hovered near a one-month low as cooling US inflation tempered Fed-hike expectations but oil-price risks linger. Energy & Infrastructure: Queenstown Airport created a new chief of infrastructure role to drive a major capital programme, and Meridian flagged falling forward wholesale prices tied to new generation pipeline progress. Trade & Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Winston Peters met Pacific counterparts in Auckland as NZ pushes closer regional ties, while Todd McClay kicked off a Latin America business panel. Business & Innovation: Lanaco launched what it says is the world’s first bio-based wool filter for air purifiers, and Bizcap expanded into the US with faster SME lending. Local Governance: Wellington-area council amalgamation talks continue, with a draft model proposing a single regional authority plus community councils. Compliance & Courts: A case involving alcohol licence enforcement and another on judicial access/justice costs kept the spotlight on regulation and affordability.

Pacific Diplomacy: Foreign Minister Winston Peters meets Niue, Fiji and Samoa counterparts in Auckland, aiming to deepen ties amid shifting regional security and investment priorities. Labour & Unions: The Greens push for automatic union membership as the default for new employees, triggering backlash from ACT over free choice and a return to compulsory unionism. Conservation Reform: Environmental groups have forced a backtrack on parts of the government’s nature protection overhaul, while broader changes raise concerns about who controls conservation decisions. Climate & Timekeeping: A New Zealand audience gets a US-style daylight saving reality check as the US moves to make it permanent, while stadium design news highlights how extreme weather is reshaping infrastructure planning. Biosecurity & Food Costs: MPI says a newly detected H5N1 bird flu strain is likely to become endemic, with knock-on risk for free-range egg producers. Trade & Connectivity: Cathay Pacific expands Christchurch-Hong Kong capacity, adding seats and belly freight for South Island exporters. Markets & Spending: NZX 50 slips as China growth worries weigh on A2 Milk, while card spending falls again and households tighten belts. Housing & Courts: REINZ shows June house prices and sales down, and debate continues over affordability of legal action as court access costs rise.

Markets & Rates: The NZX 50 slipped for a third straight session as A2 Milk led the fall and housing data showed the market still drifting in June, while softer US inflation helped lift tech sentiment and supported some local gains. Household Spending: Stats NZ reported a drop in June credit and debit card spending, with groceries the only category rising. Oil & Inflation Pressure: Renewed US-Iran tensions are pushing up oil prices again, with the Reserve Bank warning volatility could keep inflation risks elevated—an issue that could flow through to mortgage rates. Pacific Islands Forum Costs: An OIA-released MFAT document flags potential $30m operating costs over two years for hosting the Pacific Islands Forum Leaders’ Meeting, up from $20m budgeted, raising a $10m squeeze risk. Housing & Local Government: Councils are being told to prepare high-risk communities for climate impacts, while Waitomo District Council approved a 3.79% rates rise. Trade & Export Outlook: Kiwi exporters face some of the toughest conditions in a decade as costs soar and geopolitics bite, even as parts of the export mix keep growing. Health & Biosecurity: New Zealand confirmed its first case of deadly H5N1 bird flu in a sea bird, with officials saying the country is well prepared. Auckland Visitor Economy: Tātaki Auckland Unlimited added eight Māori-owned businesses and new cultural places to its “Treasures of Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland” platform for Matariki.

India–NZ trade push: PM Modi’s New Zealand visit lifts the relationship to a “strategic partnership”, with an India–NZ free trade deal and a roadmap aiming to double trade by 2030, plus new cooperation on payments and defence. RBNZ transparency: Reserve Bank chief economist Paul Conway says the MPC should be held to account as the charter increases openness around rate decisions. Farm profitability boost: ANZ research estimates a 5% revenue lift and 5% cost cut could add $2.9b profit across dairy, red meat, kiwifruit, arable and pipfruit. Export pressures: DHL says Kiwi exporters are resilient but still absorbing supply-chain costs as geopolitical tensions and higher costs bite. Aviation upgrades: Air New Zealand reveals first looks at new Boeing 777 cabin designs, including Business Premier and Economy refreshes. Cyber risk: A joint advisory warns Russian state-linked hackers are targeting poorly secured routers in critical infrastructure networks. Regional economy: Waikato University’s Tauranga growth plans are expected to inject up to $20m into the local economy. AI governance: TUANZ urges trust-focused rules for generative AI adoption, especially for SMEs. Markets: NZX50 slips as oil prices rise on Middle East tensions, while the kiwi dollar firms on rate expectations.

Markets & Rates: The NZ dollar firmed as investors priced more RBNZ tightening after Paul Conway warned Middle East-linked oil risks could keep inflation sticky. Banking & Borrowers: Floating mortgage rates lifted (ASB 6.04%, BNZ 6.09%, Westpac also up) but banks say mortgage serviceability test rates are unchanged, with most home loans still fixed. NZX Watch: The NZX 50 slipped about 0.5% as big names eased, while Skellerup hit a record on upgraded guidance and Ryman gained on higher resales. Capital Markets Reform: Commerce minister Cameron Brewer unveiled the next round of capital markets reforms, seeking feedback to cut the cost of capital. Cybersecurity: New Zealand is named in allied warnings about Russian FSB-linked hackers exploiting poorly secured routers, with simple fixes urged. Fraud & Enforcement: An Auckland man was jailed for $2m+ tax fraud using dark web data to submit forged Inland Revenue documents. Business & Trade: India and New Zealand moved to a strategic partnership with an India-NZ free trade push and a trade target by 2030, while NZ exporters look to benefit from tariff changes abroad. Tech & AI: Snowflake signed a $6bn AWS commitment to accelerate agentic AI adoption. Sports & Culture: Sam Neill died at 78 after pneumonia, with tributes highlighting his Central Otago roots and wine legacy.

NZ-India Trade Reset: PM Narendra Modi’s first visit to New Zealand in four decades is framed as a reset for business ties, with the India-NZ FTA and a push to double trade by 2030, plus new cooperation on payments and defence. RBNZ & Household Pressure: The Reserve Bank’s latest OCR hike to 2.50% is landing hardest on stretched households, even as BusinessNZ PMI points to improving conditions. Farm Debt Relief: Federated Farmers says farm mortgages are falling as strong dairy and beef returns help farmers pay down debt, though arable farms remain under severe pressure. Cybersecurity Warning: US and partner governments, including New Zealand, warn Russian-linked hackers are targeting routers and network devices, urging users to secure home and small-office equipment. Auckland Development: A heritage Queen St building tied to Auckland’s original McDonald’s is set to be redeveloped into a 32-level, 680-student tower. Business Capability for Employers: Competenz and the EMA expand support for NZ firms beyond apprenticeships, adding employment relations, HR and leadership courses. New Product Launch: Nelson’s Goover unveils a lift-free e-bike rack aimed at making heavy bike loading easier and safer. Markets: NZX50 slipped as Middle East tensions lifted oil prices, weighing on sectors including Air New Zealand. Sports Leadership Shake-up: Brendon McCullum apologised after being sacked as England Test coach, citing results and culture issues. Entertainment & NZ Pride: Tributes followed the death of NZ-raised actor Sam Neill, a global star and Two Paddocks winery founder.

Markets & Energy: The NZX 50 slipped 0.5% as investors returned from the Matariki break and Middle East tensions pushed up oil prices, weighing on stocks including Air New Zealand; in dairy, A2 Milk fell after Fonterra trimmed its farmgate milk price forecast on soft demand. Corporate Moves: Inchcape Australasia appointed Paul Mallard as general manager for New Zealand, bringing senior leadership experience from Synlait and Fonterra. Dairy Outlook: Fonterra’s forecast cut continues to ripple through the sector, with A2 Milk reacting to the latest update. Mining & Growth: Manuka Resources boosted the probable ore reserve at its Wonawinta Silver Mine in NSW by 28%, supporting a restart of gold and silver processing later this quarter. NZ–China Security: Foreign Minister Winston Peters says New Zealand should not be “fazed” by China’s objections as it explores joining an Australia–Fiji defence alliance, arguing resistance matters. Trade & Diplomacy: 14 countries including New Zealand and the EU reaffirmed a 2016 South China Sea arbitration ruling as legally binding, rejecting China’s claims. Business Travel: Singapore Airlines will move its Manchester–Singapore route to daily service, improving connectivity for business and leisure travellers. People & Culture: Tributes continue after Kiwi screen icon Sam Neill died at 78 in Sydney, with his family citing a sudden and unexpected passing after he had been cancer-free.

India–NZ Trade Deal: New Zealand is set to ratify an India free trade agreement that cuts tariffs on 95% of NZ exports, with estimated day-one savings of $43m rising to $62m as trade grows, backed by business diplomacy. Energy & Network Costs: The Electricity Authority is seeking feedback on further reforms to distribution connection pricing to make charges more transparent, cost-reflective and less subsidised—aimed at helping businesses, EV charging and housing connect. Small Business Policy: The EMA is urging the 2026 election to deliver fewer policy shocks and more certainty, flagging energy supply, infrastructure and consenting as key to productivity and supply-chain resilience. Transport Behaviour: RNZ reports higher-than-normal EV sales, bus use and cycling since the fuel crisis may fade without policy to lock in habit changes, even as petrol prices dip. South China Sea: 14 countries including New Zealand and the EU reaffirm the 2016 arbitral ruling as legally binding and reject China’s expansive claims; China counters the award is void. Local Business & Growth: Bay of Plenty productivity lags national averages, with tourism and hospitality undervalued in measurement—while Auckland’s City Rail Link timing and future-proofing is questioned by the mayor. Start-up & Investment: Spatial AI firm Haydes has secured backing from Allbirds’ Tim Brown, Sir Stephen Tindall and Icehouse Ventures after raising $1.5m, targeting geospatial and AI applications. Community & Culture: Entries open for the inaugural New Zealand Legal Excellence Awards, spanning firms, teams and individuals nationwide.