AGP Executive Report

Tourism Momentum: International visitor arrivals rose to 358,900 in March 2026 (+15.1% year-on-year), lifting the year to 3.63m and pushing recovery to about 94% of pre-Covid levels. Energy Costs & Policy: Infrastructure New Zealand warns electricity prices stay high due to policy drift and weak long-term planning, urging urgent investment and a renewed national energy strategy. Gambling Harm Focus: AUT and partners host the 10th International Gambling Conference in Auckland (17–19 June), spotlighting online gambling risks for rangatahi and community impacts. Online Investing Trends: Sharesies data shows younger investors (18–30) are net buyers and skew toward US exposure (59% of holdings by value), with ETFs and auto-invest popular. Property Pressure at Home: Auckland mortgagee auctions keep surfacing high-end forced sales, while a Waikato flood-affected home returns to market with a $1 reserve after a cancelled settlement. Digital Rights Debate: A Huffer AI image dispute raises questions about New Zealand’s outdated image rights laws. Crypto Scam Warning: Pacific-focused commentary flags crypto promoters using social trust and public figures to lure people into unlicensed schemes.

Gig Economy Rights: The UN’s ILO has adopted a landmark convention to protect platform and gig workers, but the US and New Zealand opposed it, setting up a tougher fight over how quickly protections can be rolled into local law. AI in Advertising: RNZ reports New Zealand businesses are increasingly using generative AI to churn out ads for everything from openings to school fairs, raising fresh questions about what this means for agencies and marketing jobs. Energy & Insurance: A policy debate is heating up over climate-driven natural hazard risk and falling home insurance affordability, with experts warning insurers may retreat from vulnerable properties. Banking M&A: Co-operative Bank CEO Mark Wilkshire says the Reserve Bank’s move to let more deposit takers use “bank” could spur more mergers and acquisitions, though Co-op has no plans to join deals. Trade Disruption: MFAT flags Middle East conflict disruption hitting NZ exporters via higher freight, fuel and insurance costs, with Gulf exports down sharply year-on-year. Foreign Investment Push: Invest New Zealand chief Robert Wall outlines a plan to target bigger transformational deals, including energy and data-centre-linked investment. Local Economy Boost: Warbirds Over Wanaka says its 2026 airshow delivered more than $57m to the regional economy, up 40% on 2024. Democracy Participation: New Zealand’s 2023 election data shows about 1.19m eligible people didn’t vote, a major gap in who gets a say on policy.

Women’s T20 World Cup (NZ sport): New Zealand’s women open their campaign under new captain Melie Kerr, with central contracts updated ahead of the tournament as Flora Devonshire, Nensi Patel and Izzy Sharp join the 2026-27 central group, replacing Suzie Bates, Lauren Down and Lea Tahuhu. Global markets (NZ investor angle): SpaceX’s blockbuster Nasdaq listing lifted U.S. stocks to fresh highs, with the IPO pricing at US$135 and closing around US$161, valuing the firm at over US$2tn—another reminder of how fast capital is concentrating in tech. Household costs (NZ consumers): A fresh push to shop around highlights “loyalty taxes” in power and insurance, with Consumer NZ-linked tools suggesting meaningful savings for households that switch plans. Health policy (NZ): A new Aotearoa New Zealand study finds double sequential defibrillation didn’t improve survival rates in real-world ambulance use, adding to the debate over what should be routine in cardiac arrest care. Work rights (global, with NZ relevance): The ILO adopted a new treaty for platform gig work, setting binding standards on pay, safety, social security and how workers are classified.

Banking Leadership: ANZ NZ chief executive Antonia Watson will retire at the end of the 2026 financial year, with Ben Kelleher set to succeed her. Public Service Neutrality: Experts warn ministers are increasingly concerned about politicisation in the public service after recent Public Service Act changes, arguing career neutrality is being tested. Markets & Investing: Rocket Lab shares jumped after Nasdaq-100 inclusion was announced (effective June 22), lifting broader “space” sentiment ahead of a potential SpaceX IPO. Local Government Reform: Kaikōura residents fear losing local voice as merger talks gather pace, with options like a ward or community board on the table. Wellington Transport Perk: A tax-free public transport fare scheme is rolling out via an employee pre-tax deduction model, promising at least 30% commuting cost cuts. Online Safety: A new report from Mana Mokopuna puts children’s views at the centre of the debate on digital safety and under-16 social media restrictions. Cruise Recovery: Picton cruise bookings are up 23% for the coming season, signalling a slow return after tough years. Food & Consumer: Darrell Lea is investigating mould complaints tied to specific Rocklea Road chocolate packs.

Regulatory Clash: The Free Speech Union says the Broadcasting Standards Authority has effectively lowered the bar for state intervention after ordering NZME to broadcast an approved correction following a Newstalk ZB pronoun-related segment, with the union arguing the “speech policing” took nine months. Energy & Resilience: Te Waihanga reports renewable build costs are falling, but New Zealand still faces short-term electricity price volatility and the long-term investment needed for a low-carbon system. Natural Hazards Cover: The Natural Hazards Commission has locked in a record $12.3b reinsurance programme, boosting protection for homeowners and supporting the Crown balance sheet after major disasters. Electricity Market Rules: The Herald canvasses big retailers’ views on new EA rules aimed at improving competition, as wholesale prices soften. Pacific Business & Travel: Accor expands in Fiji with Sofitel, The Sebel and TRIBE via Yavu Collective, while Kiribati’s border reopening is set to revive tourism. Markets: NZX50 slips as US-Iran tensions weigh on sentiment, with investors also watching more frequent Stats NZ economic reporting. Trade Talks: China and New Zealand agree to push negative list negotiations for services under the China-NZ FTA.

Markets & FX: NZX50 slipped 0.4% as US-Iran tensions spooked investors, with oil and Middle East risk weighing on logistics and travel-linked stocks; the kiwi hovered around 58 US cents. Small Business AI: The Government is funding AI support for about 600,000 small firms, expanding AcceleratorNZ to 500 more businesses and rolling out AI tools for Business Mentors NZ. Public transport affordability (Wellington): Tax-free public transport is launching in the Wellington region via a payroll-based scheme that lets workers pay pre-tax and save around 30% per trip. Security & cyber/foreign interference: The FBI seized 13 websites it says were used by China to target and recruit US workers with security clearances. Education equity debate: Early charter school results are reigniting arguments over fairness, funding and how Māori and Pacific students are supported. Pacific anti-corruption push: UN and New Zealand-backed funding supports investigative journalism training across the Pacific. Wellington rail safety: A Metlink train derailment on the Johnsonville line was described as effectively running a red light, with staff injured and safety systems performing as designed. Aquaculture outlook: NZ aquaculture is forecast to face near-term pressure on mussel returns, with growers urged to reduce reliance on wild spat.

Primary Exports: New Zealand’s food and fibre sector is on track for another record year, with export revenue forecast to hit $64.3b in the year to 30 June 2026, up 6%, led by strong dairy, red meat and horticulture returns. Energy & Policy: RNZ reports redacted MBIE advice suggests the “need” for an LNG import facility can be low in some scenarios, even as the government presses ahead with the Taranaki plan. Transport Cost Relief: Labour has unveiled an election policy to cap weekly public transport fares at $20 in major cities and $10 elsewhere, with unions backing the move as cost-of-living support. Housing Sentiment: Trade Me Property says house prices are steady, but confidence is slipping, with optimism about future gains falling sharply. Finance & Compliance: ASB has been ordered to pay a record $6.7m penalty over anti-money laundering breaches. Tourism Funding: Tourism operators are calling for a sustainable long-term funding model, including ideas like a bed levy, to pay for visitor infrastructure. Regulation & Politics: A new poll finds New Zealanders broadly reject “political policing” by professional regulators, backing limits to discipline focused on competence and patient safety. Global Markets: NZX50 edged up as US-Iran tensions and inflation data weighed on broader markets.

Super Rugby Pacific: Australia’s Reds and Brumbies fell in week-one playoffs, leaving the semifinals set for two Kiwi derbies and no Aussie teams—an outcome that will delight New Zealand fans but frustrate Rugby Australia and broadcasters. Energy & environment: Meridian Energy’s fast-track bid to draw more Lake Pukaki water has sparked backlash from Mackenzie tourism operators, who warn of silt exposure and reputational damage. Politics & cost of living: Labour has unveiled a public transport fare cap—$20 a week in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch, $10 elsewhere—aimed at easing commuter pressure. Banking & compliance: ASB has been hit with a record $6.7m penalty over anti-money laundering failings, underlining tighter scrutiny on financial crime controls. Rural wellbeing: Farmstrong’s “Cut the Bull” campaign is rolling out across rural events including Fieldays to tackle isolation and mental health. Property: New data shows mixed house-price momentum, with many suburbs stable or rising while main centres remain choppy. Business moves: Goodnature has promoted two co-CEOs as it leans further into toxin-free pest control and exports. Tech & trade: Westcon-Comstor says its shift to software and recurring services is paying off, with New Zealand tracking APAC growth.

Middle East Sanctions: The UK, Canada, France, Norway, Australia and New Zealand have coordinated sanctions on Israeli individuals and networks they say finance and enable settler violence in the West Bank, with France also banning Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich from entering. Privacy Penalties Push: The Green Party wants the Privacy Commissioner to seek civil penalties up to $10m for corporates (or three times commercial gain), arguing current rules let major breaches “walk away without paying a cent.” Health Tech in Tauranga: A Tauranga GP-led firm has launched an at-home bowel screening FIT for younger New Zealanders, reporting demand doubling and early positive results leading to follow-up care. Property Pulse: Cotality data shows 56% of suburbs have stable or rising standalone house values over the three months to June, with fastest growth in Southland and the West Coast. Insurer Warns on Hazards: IAG NZ calls for a 15-year government roadmap to fix natural hazard risk reduction, saying the current approach is fragmented and not fit for purpose. Markets Watch: NZX50 jumped about 1.3% as global risk sentiment improved, while power stocks were mixed after LNG funding debate.

Energy & LNG Funding: Energy Minister Simeon Brown says New Zealand will move ahead with an LNG import facility for dry-year energy security, targeting “operational” status in 2028 and ruling out levies on household power bills—while also launching a winter reliability obligation for major retailers and large users. Tax Administration: Inland Revenue is pushing ahead with more digital, real-time tax administration and invoicing reforms, arguing it will improve risk detection and compliance—while warning the real-world impact on taxpayers needs careful handling. Charities Under Pressure: A proposed cap on tax credits for large donors (ending credits once giving exceeds $100,000) has charities warning it could cut funding and jobs in the sector. Local Government & Water Costs: Porirua’s new water authority and valuation changes have reshuffled rates—erasing some earlier increases, but still leaving average bills higher once Tiaki Wai charges and regional rates are included. Biosecurity Enforcement: Auckland Airport’s detector dog Sophie found undeclared food items from airline crew and passengers, triggering $400 infringement fines. Markets: The NZX 50 rose about 1.3% in the latest session, led by power and travel names, as oil eased on calmer Iran-Iraq tensions.

Winter Power Overhaul: Energy Minister Simeon Brown says MBIE is consulting on a new Winter Energy Reliability Obligation to force major power companies and large electricity users to secure back-up power ahead of dry years, aiming to curb the price spikes that hit households in 2024. LNG Backstop: The Government is also progressing an LNG import facility via two providers, with the aim of reducing dry-year risk and protecting jobs, and says it won’t be funded by a levy on power bills. Consumer Pressure: Consumer NZ is urging 100,000 people to sign a petition over soaring power prices, pointing to big company profits alongside disconnections and affordability stress. Property Patchiness: QV data shows the national housing market is broadly stable but “patchy”, with average values up 0.3% in the three months to end-May, while parts of the South Island (including Invercargill) and Queenstown show stronger momentum. Auckland Industrial Boom: Graeme Hart’s Wiri industrial push highlights tight vacancy conditions and rising demand for logistics space, with CBRE data showing prime industrial vacancies far lower than secondary CBD offices. Forced-Labour Tariffs: The US is proposing new Section 301 tariffs of 10% or 12.5% on imports from 60 economies over forced-labour enforcement failures, with comments due early July. Airline Cost Squeeze: IATA warns jet fuel volatility and aircraft shortages could halve global airline profits in 2026, with higher fares likely if fuel stays elevated. Cook Strait Disruption: TRAINZ says ferry services across Cook Strait have been suspended, pushing freight and passenger traffic toward the Clifford Bay alternative for faster Christchurch connections.

Markets: New Zealand shares slid to a near two-week low, down 0.9% to 13,038.24, as strong US jobs data lifted expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes and investors pulled back from AI-linked stocks; exporters like A2 Milk and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare gained on a softer kiwi, while utilities dragged, with Forsyth Barr downgrading Mercury NZ, Genesis and Meridian ahead of Meridian’s Lake Pūkaki contingent hydro storage plan. Housing & Planning: Auckland councillors are being urged to back “Scenario B” for Plan Change 120, keeping apartment zoning along bus routes nearer the CBD and taller buildings at central rail stations. Health Policy: General Practitioners Aotearoa warns a proposed 12-month GP fees freeze plus a new clinic funding formula could accelerate a two-tier health system. Aviation & Tourism: Queenstown Airport topped one million international passengers in a year, boosted by trans-Tasman demand, with new direct Brisbane services from Air New Zealand and Jetstar starting mid-June. Defence: The US has cleared a potential $2.5b sale of MH-60R naval helicopters to New Zealand, boosting anti-submarine and surface warfare capability. Energy & Weather Risk: Wellington declared a state of emergency as a rapidly rising swell threatens up to 10m waves on the south and eastern coasts, with ferry disruptions expected. Business & Regulation: Commerce Commission moves to cap Visa/Mastercard business card fees, aiming to cut costs for merchants.

NZ-Australia diplomacy: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says Australia raising concerns with China over NZ MPs’ Taiwan visit is “appreciated”, stressing the policy is unchanged and the issue has been raised “robustly” with Beijing. Finance & markets: A Harbour Asset Management portfolio manager warns Middle East turbulence is driving broad 2027 earnings downgrades, while some NZ firms show “quiet resilience” but retailers and home-services feel the hit from fuel-driven confidence. Air NZ operations: Air New Zealand says it has reached a breakthrough on engine issues, but fuel costs remain a demand drag and the airline expects fluctuating aircraft availability into 2027. Agriculture policy: Federated Farmers launches a five-point election plan urging lower farm costs, technology and infrastructure support, community conservation, backing young farmers, and replacing resource consents with farm plans. Housing & cost pressures: House prices are “shuffling sideways” as mortgage rates rise; a rental affordability index suggests NZ renters are improving versus Australia. Energy hardship: The Winter Energy Payment is buying less warmth each year, with calls for smarter, longer-term fixes as energy hardship affects about a third of households. Auckland risk & infrastructure: Scientists confirm the Mangatangi Fault is active, with potential for up to a 6.8 quake, while Auckland Council trials buy-now-pay-later at dog pounds to reduce unclaimed pets. Health system strain: A new survey finds many Kiwis delay care due to costs or access, and a melanoma patient in Whangārei is fundraising after treatment eligibility limits access to a key drug. Corporate & governance: KiwiRail discloses a director’s $44,630 pay alongside conflict-of-interest concerns, renewing scrutiny of board governance.

Trans-Tasman Trade: Argentina has formally lodged a letter of intent to join the CPTPP, potentially linking it with the UK for the first time since 1982 and setting up a multi-year accession process that could reshape regional trade flows. World Cup & US Visas: Iran’s World Cup squad has received US visas, but some key administrative staff were still waiting on paperwork, adding fresh friction just days before kick-off. NZ Workplace Rights: A Christchurch petition, “Beyond Three Days”, is asking Parliament to lift the minimum bereavement leave from three days to ten, arguing the current rule can force self-employed people out of work. Aviation Costs: Global airline leaders meeting in Rio are warning that Iran-linked fuel shocks and disrupted airspace are colliding with aircraft delivery delays, pushing carriers toward higher fares and tighter capacity—an issue that will feed into Air New Zealand’s cost outlook. Auckland Pest Pressure: Ponsonby residents report a surge in rats, with pest calls reportedly spiking, while Auckland Council says it hasn’t recorded a matching increase. Capital Gains Tax Row: Australia’s Labor has brushed off NZ PM Christopher Luxon’s CGT criticism as “apples and oranges”, keeping the trans-Tasman tax debate front and centre. Health & Governance: PNG is running internal audit training across provincial health authorities with support from Australia and New Zealand, aiming to strengthen controls so funding reaches frontline services. Agriculture Policy: Federated Farmers is pushing parties to scrap resource consents and replace them with farm plans to cut red tape and reduce compliance burden.

Trans-Tasman Politics: Christopher Luxon and Anthony Albanese traded “tongue-in-cheek” barbs after their leaders’ meeting, a reminder that NZ–Australia ties are managed as much through public tone as policy. Aviation Costs: Air New Zealand says fuel hedging and fare rises have only cushioned 25–40% of higher jet-fuel costs, with more increases likely into 2027. Regional Connectivity: Iata’s Asia-Pacific chief questioned whether airlines should be expected to run loss-making regional routes, arguing state funding may be needed where connectivity is a national need. Housing & Energy: Fletcher Living’s Canterbury solar trial promises “zero power bills” for five years, but the savings are still based on estimates pending real-world results. Health & Equity: Pharmac’s move to consider funding Wegovy puts a spotlight on NZ’s obesity burden and the equity gap created by private costs. Fisheries: Orange roughy protections tighten as new data shows severe stock decline, with temporary seamount closures and seasonal restrictions. Construction Outlook: New building data points to a sharp slowdown, with Auckland and Wellington hit hardest, raising concerns for jobs and confidence. Business Deal: Heartland’s proposed $620m TSB purchase would create a larger “challenger bank” with a regional focus.

Trans-Tasman diplomacy: Prime Ministers Christopher Luxon and Anthony Albanese wrapped up their Noosa leaders’ meeting, saying Australia–NZ ties are “in the best shape” and will stay close despite a “volatile world,” with shared focus on defence cooperation and economic resilience. Nuclear submarine tension managed: Albanese said Australia will work with NZ’s nuclear-free stance “whilst respecting NZ sovereignty” as AUKUS submarines progress, while Luxon reiterated NZ’s position won’t change. Tax friction cooled: Luxon warned a capital gains tax would be a “wrecking ball” for NZ, and Albanese brushed off Nicola Willis’ tax jabs as “banter,” keeping the relationship framed as friendly. Budget 2026 spotlight: A breakdown of Treasury “Revenue” and “Finance” spending items highlights the scale of government finance commitments heading into 2026/27. Food and farming: Rabobank expects tight global beef supply to keep prices firm through 2026, with NZ farmgate easing slightly but remaining historically high. Health workforce: Hato Hone St John welcomed moves to allow prescribing rights for appropriately qualified paramedics, aiming to cut treatment delays. Housing pressure point: A Disputes Tribunal case shows how buying a home with friends can sour fast, ending in tribunal costs and buyouts.